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Ajouter un commentaireIt is a win-win situation for all. Pollsters suddenly hold the tools of power, with “viewer worms” and “instant polls” ready to determine the winner of each debate within minutes. MPs feel the weight of pressure ease from them as the UK election develops into an American presidential race. The TV channels have hours of election night excitement to exploit, knowing this is just one of the rehearsals for the big day on May 6th. The reign of style over substance has begun.
Cleggmania
And the reason the debates have proven such a success ? Nick Clegg. The British public needed a politician to believe in : in the space of two weeks, Cleggmania has swept the nation. A spontaneous cottage industry has been busily producing “I agree with Nick” T-shirts to feed demand. The novelty of the youthful Liberal Democrat party - originally founded in 1859 (albeit in its present form since 1988) - has surprised all. The first debate on April 15th launched Clegg’s popularity to such an extent that the media proclaimed : “Britain’s Obama” has reached our shores. The opinion polls registered a 10% increase in LibDem support.
The Labour party, seeing itself as the natural partner in a coalition with the Lib Dems, flung open the curtains it was mournfully drawing and turned its collective face to the warmth of the yellowish light beamed from the Lib Dem hope.
Smear campaign
The Tories fell under collective paranoia and felt compelled to launch a smear campaign. The Tory press obliged, digging up the salacious dirt that Clegg had in 2002 written a reasoned and well-founded article questioning the continued British hatred of the Germans. In less of a knee-jerk than a full-body convulsion, the second most popular UK newspaper, the Daily Mail, headlined “Clegg in Nazi slur on Britain”. That stalwart of progressive thinking, Tory MP Nicholas Soames, was called upon to decry Clegg’s views as “an insult to the memory of Britain’s war dead”. What’s worse, he went on to shout, the article proved “that Mr Clegg shares the European view of Britain rather than the British view”.
The Mail on Sunday had already promoted the welcoming British attitude to the continent, headlining (in the print version) : “His wife is Spanish, his mother Dutch, his father half-Russian and his spin doctor German. Is there ANYTHING British about LibDem leader ?”
As further questions were raised over donations accepted by the Lib Dems, the huge Tory backlash prompted Peter Mandelson to rush to Clegg’s defence, accusing the Tories of smearing him due to his popularity. A lesser man than Clegg could have interpreted Mandelson offering support as the beginning of the end.
The threat of Europe
The Liberal Democrat pro-European stance may indeed be the chink in the armour. The theme of the second TV debate on 22 April was foreign policy. Viewers reacted less positively to Clegg’s answer on the first question concerning Europe, and from then on, through questions on immigration, Afghanistan, the environment and pensions, the ratings remained fairly stable in comparison to the week before. However, Clegg kept ahead, as two polls rated him the winner, with two edging Cameron into first place, but predictably none showed the huge lead established by Clegg after the first debate.
(Comres/ITV telephone poll : NC on 33% and GB and DC at 30% each. YouGov internet poll for the Sun : DC 36%, NC on 32% and GB on 29% Angus Reid poll : NC on 33%, DC on 32% and GB on 23% Populus/Times poll : DC 37%, NC 36%, GB 26%)
In the UK, Cameron’s mantra of wanting “to be in Europe, not run by Europe” is familiar and well-liked. Europe as presented by Clegg – ironically offering a referendum on staying in or out of Europe – less so. Even as he attacked Cameron for joining a “bunch of nutters” in the European Parliament, his ratings sank. Brown waded in to attack Cameron with another rehearsed line, saying “it is the Big Society at home but Little Britain abroad”, widening it to both his opponents to warn that « David is anti-European, Nick is anti-American and both are out of touch with reality. »
Still Brown lost the debate. Of course. This despite reigning in that spasmodic smirk and remembering the best soundbites. His favourite well-rehearsed off-the-cuff remark “these two guys remind me of my two boys at bath time – squabbling” was delivered with no sense of timing, but did show he was trying to take part by copying Clegg’s winning comments from the week before. Both he and Cameron adopted Clegg’s device of the previous week : staring down the lens of the camera whilst speaking, as if trying to hypnotise some undecided voter.
North of the border
Also wanting a Nick Clegg moment was Alex Salmond, Leader of the Scottish National Party (SNP) who incongruously waited for the final debate to howl a complaint about the England-centric campaign which has failed to include him in the debates. His course of action, why not, was to lodge a legal challenge against the BBC for failing to include Nationalist leaders from devolved Scotland and Wales - an action which required a quick whip-round to secure the £50,000 necessary for legal fees and which, if successful, will merely result in the debate not being shown in Scotland. Scotland’s used to own goals but this is surely taking it a bit far. Salmond’s coup de grace came as he incurred the ire of Clegg himself, who accused him of “stamping his foot on the sidelines in fury”.
Courting the Tories
Not that Clegg will have spent much time pondering the electorate north of the border as he sought to shake off his recent success and the prospect of a hung parliament by committing an unexpected tactical error. Having refused to be drawn on who he would form a coalition government with, he changed tack and, ignoring the vast number of disillusioned Labour voters who would vote for him, set out plans that he would choose to govern with the Conservatives. Having gauged reaction he dithered and said it was just Brown he didn’t like, Labour was still ok.
Positives
However, some positive developments can still be noted in the last full week before the election. Interest has risen. As has voter registration, according to a Guardian poll. This is mostly amongst young voters and for postal votes. A possible higher turnout allows for predictions of an even more unexpected outcome at the election.
And the biggest positive is that the prospect of a hung parliament does not seem to faze the public anymore. Whether this is a realisation that the political system will be fundamentally changed if the Lib Dems form part of a coalition, or a way of dragging out the Cleggmania excitement until any government is formed is hard to say. But in a few weeks, Britain could finally be rid of the first past the post system and be grappling with the idea of proportional representation.
And we still have another TV debate to go.
Headline photo : Flickr.com
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