What’s at stake?

Climate change, the focus of COP15, presents a significant and urgent threat to the global environment. While some skeptics remain, it is widely accepted that we are experiencing abnormal and unnatural variances to the climate system. Specifically, scientists are observing an unprecedented rise in global temperatures, rising sea levels, melting of the ice caps, and extreme weather, among other occurrences. As concluded by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), these changes are largely occurring due to heightened levels of greenhouse gases. Human activity such as deforestation and burning of fossil fuels releases an enormous amount of carbon into the atmosphere. Thus, the aim is to regulate and reduce carbon emissions worldwide. The effects of pollution know no national boundaries. The global environment is at stake, and global cooperation is needed to halt and reverse these threatening trends.

Who’s playing?

Although all states are effected by climate change, not all players are equal. Some states or groups of states have taken a leading role in reducing carbon emissions, while other states, due to their size and industrial capacity, cause much more damage. Of course, some states are also in a much better financial position to commit to carbon reductions.

The EU has long fancied itself an environmental leader, and has certainly been doing its best to live up to the title as COP15 approaches. Almost a year ago, the EU committed itself to a 20% reduction in carbon emissions (from 1990 levels) by the year 2020. In addition, it will aim for a 20% increase in the share of renewable sources of energy in total energy use. Furthermore, the EU agreed to increase the reduction target to 30%, pending similar commitments from other states.

The US has slipped from its place as environmental leader since the Bush administration refused to sign the Kyoto Protocol. However, significant American commitments are fundamental to a successful conclusion at COP15 for two main reasons. Firstly, the US is the worlds’ second largest greenhouse gas emitter, after China. Without strong commitment from the US, the efforts of other states will not be along to stop and reverse damaging environmental trends. Secondly, although the US may no longer be an environmental leader, it is still an all-around global leader. Many states, China in particular, are waiting to make vocal their commitment to carbon reductions until the US announces its targets. The Obama administration has publicly advocated for an ambitious 80% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions (from 1990 levels) by 2050. However, the bill must still pass in the Senate before the commitment is codified as American law.

China is the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases, due to rapid industrialization and a heavy reliance on coal-powered stations, which currently account for 70% of Chinese energy, among other factors. With an economy relying heavily on exports, China is often characterized as the world’s factory, producing goods and shipping them globally. This means that much of the carbon it emits is tied to goods consumed outside of China. Thus, China argues that industrialized states should take on more of the carbon cutting burden. While China has yet to commit to specific targets, it aims to have 15% renewable energy by 2020, compared to the EU’s 20%.

African states join China in calling for developed states to take on more of the carbon cutting burden, and to provide developing states with funds to help reduce emissions and introduce renewable energy sources. In the latest round of talks which took place in Barcelona last week, around 50 African states boycotted meetings, forcing several cancellations. They insisted that developed states have set carbon reduction targets too low to make a real difference. A continent stricken by poverty, drastic effects of climate change such as worsening drought are already having a serious impact.

Numerous other states will be prove to be key players at COP15 as well. Brazil has shown signs of solidarity with European targets, although no formal alliance between the EU and Brazil has been announced. Attention should also be paid to Russia, India, and Japan, the fourth, fifth, and sixth biggest carbon emitters, respectively.

Environmental NGOs such as Oxfam have of course also been advocating for strong commitments at COP15. Talks on climate change over the past few years have been regularly interrupted by protestors for ‘climate justice’. This notion stems from the idea that climate change has a strong ethical dimension, and has been picked up in the mainstream media. Most recently, James Garvey has written for the Guardian arguing that ‘avoiding action on climate change because it might be too expensive is on a moral par with harming other people for money.’

Of course, there are also climate change deniers, who may raise a fuss as the conference gets underway. Among these disillusioned characters, we can count BNP leader Nick Griffin, Czech President Václav Klaus, and former Alaskan governor Sarah Palin – hardly a group known for rational assessments and beliefs.

Who are the favourites?

The EU will certainly attempt to lead the debate at COP15, but it faces internal divisions, an age old European problem at international fora. At the European Council Summit in late October, eastern and western member-states were divided over how the financial burden of cutting carbon emissions would be shared. Poorer eastern states favour basing distribution on how wealthy a state is, insisting that if the EU can pledge funds to help external developing states cut carbon emissions, it should be helping its own poorer members as well.

Contrariwise, western states prefer to base the distribution of costs on how much carbon a state produces, to the benefit of states such as France which have more evolved renewable energy sources. If the EU manages to reach consensus before COP15 begins, it can be a real leader. But if the EU cannot present a unified front, its bargaining power will be greatly diminished.

Although Obama’s targets have not yet been approved by the Senate, we can expect a certain degree of American leadership at this summit, as is most often the case for international meetings. Even in negotiations resulting in the Kyoto protocol, the US succeed in pushing through its plan for a Carbon Emissions Trading System CETS), though its taken a bizarre turn since then, with the US itself refusing to ratify the protocol, and the EU now being the most successful implementer of the CETS, a system it initially opposed.

Symbolically, the novelty of Obama’s election has not quite worn off, so in this sense he will still be looked to for guidance. However, recent news that his climate bill is to undergo a five-week cost assessment means that it will not likely be voted on before 2010. This is a huge blow because although Obama’s position is clear, without approval of the Senate he cannot legally commit to anything.

What to look out for

Developing states will make a strong effort to insist on industrialized states taking on a greater share of the carbon reduction burden. They’ll also push for funding to aid them in their reforms. Watch to see if they will act as a united force, or if there will be several voices, all calling for similar things.

Protests will likely be plentiful, but I predict more climate believers, campaigning for climate justice and stronger commitments, rather than masses of climate change deniers. Griffin and Klaus aren’t exactly known for their ability to motivate to masses in their favour.

What the EU should do

The Union now has less than a month to prepare itself for COP15. Hosted by member-state Denmark, this conference is seen in the eyes of national European leaders as well as EU institutional leaders as a real chance for the EU to force significant action on something it regards as a policy priority.

Before December 7th, the EU must settle its internal debate on how to distribute climate-cutting costs. France and the like have done well to increase their usage of renewable energy sources, and may feel it unfair that they should have to pay for coal-reliant economies in the East. However, there must be a recognition that Western states were allowed to develop on less-environmentally friendly energy sources in the past, and because of this experience are now in the position to experiment with more costly renewable energy sources. However, less developed member states must not expect too much, and must demonstrate concrete efforts to increase their share of renewable energy sources.

The EU also must enter COP15, pledging financial and technical support to developing states in their efforts to cut carbon emissions and develop renewable energy sources.

Finally, the EU should adopt the 30% reduction target regardless of the outcome of negotiations. To offer to reduce carbon emissions by a higher amount, if other states do as well, is not entirely logical. While it may serve as a motivator for other states to offer high reduction targets, the fact about climate change is that the less emissions the better. Even if other states don’t commit to such targets, the EU is doing itself and the world a favour by lowering its emissions. Obviously, if the Union offered 30% reductions, it is capable of achieving this target.

Some may argue that the economy might suffer as a result, and the EU would make itself less competitive than other states, which have not committed to significant targets. Here, I draw your attention back to Garvey’s argument that ‘avoiding action on climate change because it might be expensive is on a moral par with harming other people.’ Other states may be comfortable with putting profit ahead of environmental protection. In fact, all states have done this for decades. Up until lately, they may have even done so largely in ignorant bliss. But there is no reason for the EU to continue down this path.

Boasting the world’s largest economy, the EU is disproportionately wealthy for its population size. As a group of states that pioneered environmental policy and preaches human rights, the EU must commit itself to the highest standards of environmental protection and carbon reductions, and use all of its persuasive power to urge and aid the rest of the world to do the same this December in Copenhagen.

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