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Ajouter un commentaireMost notably, it is contesting every one of the 69 seats in mainland UK constituencies. The money the BNP is spending on the campaign for the European election is by its own estimation equal to the total spent on all previous campaigns combined. The campaign is focusing especially on seven regions, in particular the North West region of England where the party needs as little as 8% to guarantee a seat. The assumption that party leader Nick Griffin, standing in the North West, will become the first BNP MEP is widely held, with the current expenses scandal and the ensuing public disillusionment with politicians further heightening expectations of his chances. The rare step taken by the Archbishops of Canterbury and York in the wake of the scandal of releasing a statement warning voters not to turn to the BNP at the European election seems to compound fears of a swing in voter support.
This forecast runs counter to the findings of predict09.eu, an advanced tool for predicting the 2009 European election results developed by three leading political scientists for lobbying firm Burson-Marsteller. It foresees only a small percentage rise of 0.5% for the BNP vote, resulting in no MEPs. No doubt, the BNP threat has in the past often been over-estimated, and party bluster is only too happy to maximise this, positioning itself as the persecuted underdog about to break through. However, UK European election results are hard to predict, as the d‘Hondt percentage of votes needed to win varies in each region depending on the distribution of votes amongst the parties and the number of seats allocated per region. The Green party won a seat in the South East and in London in 2004 with only 8% of the vote, partly due to the distribution of the remaining vote amongst the other parties. It was also not foreseen in 2004 that the UK Independence Party (UKIP) would win 12 seats, and a number of issues this year may improve the BNP’s chances.
Which factors could increase the BNP vote ?
- Campaign material of the British National Party.
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A blogger recently revealed that the pictures were taken from a photo sharing platform and mostly show American citizens.
Source : mia ! on flickr.com
Economic instability has repeatedly been shown to play into the hands of extremist parties. The economic crisis and the resulting credit crunch have impacted on the UK more rapidly than on most Western European countries. As the crisis continues and as unemployment rises sharply, faith in the path steered by the government is waning. The phrase „British jobs for British workers“, coined by Gordon Brown eighteen months ago, before the crisis, has been adopted and misused by the BNP as its campaign slogan to play on very real fears amongst voters about job security.
Former Chancellor Gordon Brown initially garnered support for his handling of the banking crisis by setting a clear line for the UK. This gain was rapidly lost, as Brown has floundered from one PR disaster to another. The controversial proposal for part-privatisation of the Royal Mail, the niggardly treatment of the Gurkhas and party wrangling over possible leadership contenders have resulted in ever diminishing public support for the government, and support for Brown as leader is low.
However it is the expenses scandal unleashed by the revelations of The Daily Telegraph newspaper at the beginning of May which has undoubtedly done most damage, not only to the government, but to the integrity of politicians across the board. As public faith in Westminster has eroded, the BNP has positioned itself as the only anti-Establishment, anti-corruption party, allegedly vilified only for speaking the truth. Speaking at the launch of the BNP European campaign in May, Nick Griffin pointed to the expenses scandal as a key issue in the party‘s favour : „Up until 10 days ago...we could probably if we did well, win two to three seats. What‘s gone on in the last week with the expenses scandal means that we are serious contenders for six to seven European seats“.
European elections are rarely fought on European issues ; domestic policies dominate almost entirely, nowhere more so than in the UK. They are also, along with by-elections and European referenda, often seen as an opportunity for a protest vote against the government. The system of proportional representation used for the European elections offers more scope for this, as smaller parties have more chance of being voted in. In addition, the notoriously low turnout at European elections - 24% in the UK in 1999 - benefits small parties able to mobilise their supporters to greater effect. Whilst Labour is singling out the most pro-BNP regions to target specifically on a local level, a nationwide mobilisation of the electorate for the European election has failed to materialise on any significant scale. Combined with the current voter mistrust in the government and the resulting widespread political apathy, 2009 could see voter turnout reach an all-time low, opening the door for small fringe party gains.
The surprise of 2004 was UKIP‘s success, the party gaining 16.1% of the vote with a militantly anti-EU message. In the intervening years, the party has become a less credible option for voters opposing European integration, due to corruption allegations and internal disharmony. Whilst the majority of voters alienated from UKIP are likely to vote Conservative, the fear voiced by senior members of the Labour party is that a number are likely to defect to the BNP. Whilst the overall total of UK MEPs (including Northern Ireland) will go down from 78 to 72 at this year‘s election, this will not affect UKIP constituencies. As UKIP has lost legitimacy with the electorate, the BNP has built support on a local level, with 55 local councillors across the country and a seat on the London Assembly. The party message remains racist and right-wing, however the face of the party has slowly evolved, with activists advised to present a moderate front. The anti-EU message has become the forefront of the campaign, sidelining the racialist and fascist policies the party actually represents, at least until after the election. Until a British government finds the courage to support openly the aims of the EU and promote the benefits membership provides, an anti-EU message will continue to pull much voter and media support. Thus, it is possible that the BNP will see gains through positioning itself as the viable UKIP alternative.
What are the consequences of a BNP vote ?
Discussing the BNP threat always runs the risk of providing additional publicity for the party. Generally, mainstream media have been wary of focusing overly on the party for this reason. However in the search for populist quotes to support the general tide of anti-EU feeling propagated by the British media, the BNP is increasingly finding opportunities for self-promotion. On a local level, the BNP has been able to distribute campaign adverts to support the 92 million leaflets it is sending to homes and the 50,000 placard boards it claims it will fill. Should the BNP gain seats in the European Parliament, the risk is that it will begin to receive the media attention which UKIP has enjoyed since 2004, allowing the presentation of its policies to receive press coverage disproportionate to its actual voter support.
- Nick Griffin, chairman of the BNP.
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Griffin called in a BNP publication the Holocaust a « Holohoax ». Under the BNP’s constitution, Griffin is solely responsible for the party’s legal and financial liabilities, and has the final say in all decisions affecting the party.
Source : Wikimedia Commons.
If they are elected to the European Parliament, the BNP will have access to much larger funds to promote the party. The current source of the funding for the hugely increased current BNP mobilisation campaign is unclear ; additional funds will flow back into the party coffers, providing opportunities once the date for the British general election is finally set.
On a European platform, the BNP will have the opportunity to link into European far-right networks, as the French Front National did once elected to Strasbourg. Indeed, the Guardian newspaper reports that the party has spent the last 12 months building networks with extremist groups across Europe in the hope of forming a far-right coalition once in the European Parliament, with deputy leader Simon Darby attending a conference with the leader of the Italian Forza Nuova and French National Front Holocaust denier, Bruno Gollnisch.
Nonetheless, the BNP threat remains just that : a threat. The party is likely to gain support in comparison with the 2004 election, however it will not propel the party from the fringe of UK politics into the mainstream. The party described by Griffin as a „liberating army“, is unlikely to conquer enough ground to achieve its proclaimed aim of six or seven European seats. The danger is not that the political landscape will shift irrevocably with the result of the European election. The danger is that the European election may provide the BNP with enough leverage to influence political discourse in the UK. As protectionist policies gain credence across Europe, political leaders are able to use nationalistic language again, seeking to protect their people from the ills outside the national border. It is in this atmosphere that even incremental BNP influence over the political and media agenda poses the greatest risk.
Article logo : ross mcross on flickr.com
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