According to new polls only 35 pct. of the Irish are in favour of the Treaty, 31 pct. are against and 34 pct. are in doubt. This means that the Irish could actually reject the Lisbon Treaty. It it not going to take many stories in the media about EU-fraud or regulations on cucumbers to win over those in doubt to the sceptics. Or how about trade liberalisation ? Irish farmers threaten to take the referendum as a hostage if ongoing WTO-talks on trade liberalisation lead to the cuts in farm subsidies that Trade Commissioner Mandelson has negotiated. This shows how unpredictable referenda on European issues are. In response to the farmers’ threat Irish PM Bertie Ahern has pulled out the big gun one month before the referendum, stating that a no would be a “disaster for the country”. The history of European referenda does not exactly prove that European voters favour such aggressive rhetoric – quite the contrary. It could actually end up with a no in Ireland.