The Arab Revolutions : everyone is talking about them

Although NATO had just taken overall control of military operations in Libya, questions were raised about its past strategy and its future interventions : is the western coalition responding too late ? Why is NATO intervening in certain countries but not in others ? How can it provide effective support for democratic development in these countries ?

Besides political and humanitarian concerns, interests closer to home were in play, such as the worry over access to energy resources. The presence of China at the summit revealed a shared interest in global stability which neither the Asian giant nor the Atlantic alliance is capable of ensuring alone. The question is whether historic oppositions will be replaced by a new model of global governance, one of partnership and collaboration.

Is there a common strategy for the Middle East ?

The opening debate of this years’ Brussels Forum was organised by the BBC and brought together three high-level speakers : Catherine Ashton, the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Jeanne Shaheen, American Senator (Democrat) and Director of the Harvard Institute of Politics, and Nabil Fahmy, a international security and disarmament policy specialist and former Egyptian Ambassador to the United States (1999-2008).

“Political confrontation in the Middle East was inevitable,” explained Ms Fahmy. “These countries have much younger populations than Western countries and these youngsters have increasing access to new methods of communication, which then become methods of organisation. As far as this turn of unexpected

Catherine Ashton

Catherine Asthon

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Brussels Forum / GMFUS ©

events is concerned, the growing movement towards democracy is not only positive for us, but also positive for you”. It remains to be seen whether the European Union and the United States will be able to come and support this movement.

“Democracy cannot be imported”

“If you want to help us, do so on a long-term basis by allowing us to build up a successful education system” Nabil Fahmy added, reminding all in attendance that “democracy cannot be imported”. The discussion then turned towards the burning issue of Libya : what justifies a military intervention in this country when citizens are also in danger in Syria and Bahrain ? Is this not double standards in practice ? According to Senator Jeanne Shaheen, “the variety of situations in question justifies this asymmetry. It is important to determine which leader has the resources to most massively attack his people”.

Catherine Ashton agreed on this point : “I do not believe we can apply one solution to every different internal situation in countries of that region”, said the Vice-President of the European Commission, who supports maintaining a constant dialogue with the Syrian authorities. “We want those citizens to experience freedom and democracy, not chaos”.

An Egyptian blogger, Mamhoud Salam (alias Sandmonkey) then intervened to ask : “Beyond a military strategy, what is the West ready to do to guarantee development in the region ? Will there be a US-Egypt FTA, for example ?”

Jeanne Shaheen kicked that suggestion immediately into touch, saying : “We cannot just open up the markets - we must first assure ourselves of your capacity to produce goods to the standards that we require.” The exchange was frank and courteous throughout the debate. But outside the official forums, discussions continued and people began to ask questions. Why had the Americans and Europeans not attacked Gaddafi earlier so as to arrest him in Tripoli ? What was the logic behind this delayed intervention : to give the Libyan leader a head-start, to bring to light the weaknesses of the rebels, to safeguard Western interests or to simply buy time to find an agreement ? Is all this just speculation ? In any case, those who speak have the experience.

“Does the West have a Plan B for Libya ?”

Kamal Dalili, an advisor to the Afghan Parliament and member of the European Democracy Foundation, expressed worries, “It was necessary to protect citizens in Libya ; it is a priority not only for Western countries but also for the entire world. But does the West have a reconstruction plan for the country post Gaddafi ? Is the opposition force in Libya set on democracy ? It is important that the West talks to the people, and that they are heard and engaged in the process of democratisation. Afghanistan showed us that the West did not have a plan for the State’s reconstruction. They brought down the brutal Taliban regime but after that they did not know what to do, where to go, who to trust or who to talk to. You have to find the right people to support the democratic process, to lead the country towards free elections. What good will the fall of Gaddafi do if he is replaced by a government that is more fundamentalist and more extremist ? In Afghanistan, the disregard of the wishes of the population has led to the situation we see today. The people simply must be listened to. The West must also not forget that democracy has taken many centuries to establish itself in their own countries – it would be very naïve to impose a Western model of democracy upon any Muslim country.”

“The West needs us”

We are extending our report of the debate with an interview with Mahmoud Salem, blogger, financier and Egyptian activist who participated in the opening debate of the Forum. He was amongst those who helped launch the revolution and is looking to sustain the movement, and so is travelling across Europe in search of support : “We both need to be assured that democracy can work in our countries and that economic stability in our country is not threatened”.

The Egyptian activist’s dream : developing trade links to his country to overcome this current difficult phase. Even if “all action by Western countries in this region in the last thirty years has been linked with dictatorships” and that, in his opinion, they should “start again from scratch”, Mahmoud continues to favour alliance with the West. “These countries are those with the most resources and who are the most inclined to help Egypt”.

But realpolitik is alive and well : “I do not trust Western countries, but they need us. We have control over the Suez Canal and we share a border with Israel. In addition, our development determines migration flows towards Europe”. But are these sufficient arguments to convince Europe and the United States ? What if they do not provide the expected support ? “The West is a possibility, Brazil and India are others, and in the event of us not moving towards democracy, support could also be sought from Russia and China”. Chinese influence is rightly seen as growing in the region, which helps explain why the West approached Beijing to ask their participation in stabilising the Mediterranean region.

“Egypt must find its own model”

The conference on Friday evening entitled “China’s Rise : Is Strategic Competition Inevitable ?” brought together Carl Bildt, the Swedish Minister for Foreign Affairs, Robert Hormats, American Under-Secretary of State for Economic, Business, and Agricultural Affairs and Fu Ying, China’s Vice-Foreign Minister. The debate’s moderator, David Ignatus (Washington Post columnist),

Carl Bildt, Swedish Minister of Foreign Affairs

Brussels Forum / GMFUS ©

invited Ms Fu Ying to say a few words on the Middle East. “We have a long tradition of relations in the region and we have evacuated 36,000 Libyan citizens,” she said. “Egypt also has a tradition of relations with China that we intend to continue. An Egyptian friend recently asked me if the Chinese model could be applied to Egypt but that would not be a good solution. I think that the Egyptian people are very well educated and are capable of finding their own model. I am optimistic about the future, once the situation stabilises”. The Chinese representative was also reassuring when she addressed the Western countries’ concerns about access to the energy market : “I do not foresee competition between the United States and China. We share a common interest : stability and access to resources”.

“I do not foresee competition between the United States and China”

The Vice-Minister then sought to justify the Chinese position towards military intervention in Libya : “It is very difficult for China to support a military intervention, wherever it is in the world. We believe the past has shown that the military option has not been the right strategy”. In fact, the Forum did not succeed in highlighting similarities of opinion, but instead managed to accentuate the differences between participants. As Iain Conn, the Executive Director of British Petroleum regrets : “the emphasis has been placed on the differences of opinion during this meeting, but when one wishes to develop a friendship we are generally interested in the common points”. However, in the eyes of Carl Bildt and Robert Homarts, collaboration is necessary since “China has an impact on all global problems”. While it is therefore difficult to do anything without it, there remain obstacles to overcome regarding relations

Ms Fu Ying, Chinese Vice-minister of foreign affairs (right)

Brussels Forum / GMFUS ©

with China and the new geopolitical landscape that is evolving. While acknowledging the advancements already made, the Danish and American representatives have identified a series of criticisms including the apparent disagreement between political and military leaders of the People’s Republic and Internet censorship. The ambassador defended herself by evoking two key points : it was the United States who sold arms to Taiwan, and China is the only permanent member of the UN Security Council who is subjected to sanctions imposed on it by other members (the EU still employs an arms embargo on China following its crackdown of the Tiananmen Square protests in 1989 despite calls from China and from a number of European countries to revoke it).

On the matter of censorship : during a charm offensive by the ambassador in which she declared she had a Gmail account, she argued that each country has its own taboo subjects, whether they be terrorism, racism, or corruption. Fu Ying also wanted to discuss the opening up of China to foreign business and the interest shown by their citizens, notably towards the United States : “I think that there are more Chinese people who read books on America than Americans who learn about China.”

To conclude, she said that, contrary to outsider perceptions, “China does not see herself as the second world power but a country still in development”. Despite certain persistent tensions she added that “the global challenges cannot be solved by the Americans or the Chinese on their own” and diplomatically stated that “partnership” was the only valid model for global governance in the 21st century.